Israel's Future: Nathan Responds
In response to my previous message, Nathan responded with this insightful collection of observations regarding the Israel/Palestinian conflict. It's jam packed with off the cuff analysis of the current situation and prospects for the future. Without further ado, here's Nathan:
Ok, first I'll describe my view of what's behind the whole conflict. As far as I'm concerned, Israel and the Palestinian territories are the pawns of a great geopolitical chess game being played between the US and the Arab/Muslim powers. The US supports Israel because it sees it as a foil against Arab nationalists and Islamic fundamentalists. After all, if the region is divided, the US can use its market power to get relatively cheap oil. The Arab/Muslim powers, on the other hand, hate Israel as a symbol of Western colonialism. They see it as the only thing that keeps their societies divided and unable to resist US hegemony. A single Arab state or Caliphate would be able to sell oil to America on its terms. Therefore, Israel/Palestine is a proxy war fueled by energy and a clash of civilizations. Europeans are ambiguous about Israel precisely because they are ambiguous about America - and because they are less dependent on Middle Eastern oil, but have larger domestic Muslim populations. Anyway, the US has an incentive to promote peace (without asking too much of Israel), while the Arab/Muslim powers see no reason to recognize Israel's existence at all (except for Egypt and Jordan, which lack oil, and have been bribed by the Americans to accept Israel). That said, Israel is as much a cultural symbol as an economic fulcrum to both sides.
Therefore, I'm pretty pessimistic about the prospects for two states, let alone a two state "solution". Hamas doesn't even recognize Israel's right to exist, and even the PA insists on the "right of return", and those demands are non-starters for Israel. At the same time, I have my doubts that Israel could summon the political will to relocate hundreds of thousands of West Bank settlers for the sake of a viable Palestinian state, even if the Palestinians were willing to give up the right of return. I think that Israel is probably in too deep in the West Bank to ever voluntarily get out, especially since the Gaza withdrawal discredited "land for peace" among Israelis. Therefore, I don't think that two states are likely any time soon (more on that later), let alone three states.
You're right that demographics is a serious problem for Israel. A single state encompassing Greater Israel wouldn't work either, as it would soon have an Arab majority. I don't think that Israeli Jews would be secure under an Arab majority state, even if it was explicitly binational and the constitution prescribed a lot of minority rights to the Jewish community. As you mentioned, the proportion of Israeli Arabs is increasing in Israel proper, and this could gradually weaken Israel's willingness and ability to defend itself as a Jewish state. Same with the increasing proportion of Haredim, who also don't serve in the army and often depend upon welfare. Finally, Israel is also gradually re-desertifying thanks to climate change and population pressures, which could fuel the conflict by increasing pressure on water resources. Basically, the way things are going, the prognosis does not look good for Israel.
The only way out of this that I see is the end of the disastrous energy dependence/conflict relationship between the US and the Arab/Muslim world. When oil money is no longer at stake, then armies will take much less interest in the region. The funding that Hamas and the PA get from Arab/Muslim oil money will cut off, making it a lot harder to maintain a rejectionist position. Also, Israel would be pushed towards compromise as the US takes less interest in its fate. But another thing would need to happen before there is peace: a Muslim Enlightenment. Basically, Muslims have to stop fantasizing about a return to the glory days of empire, and accepts a least some aspects of liberalism - including a repudiation of anti-semitism. But I think that's much more likely to happen after the oil money stops flowing in, and Muslim societies are forced to confront the weaknesses of their current cultural paradigm, since they will no longer be able to blame everything on the West. Maybe then there will be two states.
But I think that it's just as likely that it will all end in disaster. There's a lot of ways in which things could get worse: Iran could get nuclear weapons, one of the Arab states or Pakistan could fall to Islamic fundamentalists, or the West Bank could be taken over by Hamas. I could easily see it unfolding this way: some lunatic terrorist bombs a major religious site, resulting in calls for blood and a rapidly escalating spiral of violence that eventually results in a war between the US and the Arab/Islamic powers, possibly involving nuclear weapons. That could be the end of Israel as we know it.
Will that happen? I think it depends on how fast we can make an "energy transition" away from Middle Eastern oil and gas and towards renewable resources (that's equally important for environmental and geopolitical reasons). It will also depend upon countering the influence of religious fanatics, primarily Muslim ones but also including Jews and Christians. But sadly, I'd give it more than 50-50 odds that things go wrong.
Sorry to be such a downer, but that's just what I think. I don't know if this is really a Canadian perspective, because I'm basing a lot of my info on the impressions I got from the last time I was in Israel (summer '08). Let me know what you think.
Nathan
Therefore, I'm pretty pessimistic about the prospects for two states, let alone a two state "solution". Hamas doesn't even recognize Israel's right to exist, and even the PA insists on the "right of return", and those demands are non-starters for Israel. At the same time, I have my doubts that Israel could summon the political will to relocate hundreds of thousands of West Bank settlers for the sake of a viable Palestinian state, even if the Palestinians were willing to give up the right of return. I think that Israel is probably in too deep in the West Bank to ever voluntarily get out, especially since the Gaza withdrawal discredited "land for peace" among Israelis. Therefore, I don't think that two states are likely any time soon (more on that later), let alone three states.
You're right that demographics is a serious problem for Israel. A single state encompassing Greater Israel wouldn't work either, as it would soon have an Arab majority. I don't think that Israeli Jews would be secure under an Arab majority state, even if it was explicitly binational and the constitution prescribed a lot of minority rights to the Jewish community. As you mentioned, the proportion of Israeli Arabs is increasing in Israel proper, and this could gradually weaken Israel's willingness and ability to defend itself as a Jewish state. Same with the increasing proportion of Haredim, who also don't serve in the army and often depend upon welfare. Finally, Israel is also gradually re-desertifying thanks to climate change and population pressures, which could fuel the conflict by increasing pressure on water resources. Basically, the way things are going, the prognosis does not look good for Israel.
The only way out of this that I see is the end of the disastrous energy dependence/conflict relationship between the US and the Arab/Muslim world. When oil money is no longer at stake, then armies will take much less interest in the region. The funding that Hamas and the PA get from Arab/Muslim oil money will cut off, making it a lot harder to maintain a rejectionist position. Also, Israel would be pushed towards compromise as the US takes less interest in its fate. But another thing would need to happen before there is peace: a Muslim Enlightenment. Basically, Muslims have to stop fantasizing about a return to the glory days of empire, and accepts a least some aspects of liberalism - including a repudiation of anti-semitism. But I think that's much more likely to happen after the oil money stops flowing in, and Muslim societies are forced to confront the weaknesses of their current cultural paradigm, since they will no longer be able to blame everything on the West. Maybe then there will be two states.
But I think that it's just as likely that it will all end in disaster. There's a lot of ways in which things could get worse: Iran could get nuclear weapons, one of the Arab states or Pakistan could fall to Islamic fundamentalists, or the West Bank could be taken over by Hamas. I could easily see it unfolding this way: some lunatic terrorist bombs a major religious site, resulting in calls for blood and a rapidly escalating spiral of violence that eventually results in a war between the US and the Arab/Islamic powers, possibly involving nuclear weapons. That could be the end of Israel as we know it.
Will that happen? I think it depends on how fast we can make an "energy transition" away from Middle Eastern oil and gas and towards renewable resources (that's equally important for environmental and geopolitical reasons). It will also depend upon countering the influence of religious fanatics, primarily Muslim ones but also including Jews and Christians. But sadly, I'd give it more than 50-50 odds that things go wrong.
Sorry to be such a downer, but that's just what I think. I don't know if this is really a Canadian perspective, because I'm basing a lot of my info on the impressions I got from the last time I was in Israel (summer '08). Let me know what you think.
Nathan
posted by Avi at 1:08 am
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